A timeline of how the heck we got here April 14, 2025 Sign Up | View online IN THIS ISSUE 8 min read The past few weeks have been wild for Wall Street. So wild, in fact, that we decided to devote this entire issue of TLDR to unpacking what happened, and where it leaves us. Because there are lots of questions about the latter right now. We’ve got a pre-election issue in the works for next week, then we’ll return to our regular programming. —The Editors The unrelenting tariff drama has caused such chaos in markets that even some Trump supporters, including podcaster Joe Rogan, have wondered aloud what the heck is going on. | UFC/ESPN+ LIBERATION MONTH MADNESS 2025 PART I: HOW DID WE GET HERE? To kick things off, let’s take a minute to marvel at this chart. Folks, this is not normal! We just lived through several years’ worth of volatility in a matter of weeks. Here’s a rapid recap of what the heck just happened. [1] That flat-ish part in the top left of the chart is the aftermath of PM Mark Carney’s March 28 phone call with Donald Trump, which seems to cool down all the ongoing trade-war/51st-state talk. [2] Investors exhale over the weekend. But then on Monday, March 31, the White House declares that there will be “no exemptions” to Trump’s tariff onslaught and that the president will unveil the new country-by-country levies on April 2, aka “Liberation Day.” Traders think Trump must be bluffing — right? [3] Liberation Day! Trump is very much not bluffing, and he’s got the poster board to prove it. Under his plan, the U.S.’s effective tariff rate is set to reach its highest level in a century. The tariffs on China are ultra high, at 54%, and sure to slow down global trade. One CEO curses out loud during an earnings call as he watches his company’s stock tank in real time. [4] On April 3, the stock markets plunge, kicking off one of the worst crashes since the Second World War. Over two days, the S&P 500 sinks by 10.5% and the TSX falls by almost as much. China strikes back with a 34% counter-tariff, and the week ends with trillions wiped out. [5] On Sunday evening, with no sign over the weekend that Trump will blink on tariffs and with stock futures signalling more pain, billionaire Trump booster Bill Ackman concedes that, like many MAGA-supporting hedge-funders, he wrongly assumed that the president would act rationally in regard to trade. “My bad,” Ackman writes. [6] On Monday, April 7, the major indexes kick off the week by (briefly) dipping into bear territory. Then about 30 minutes into the session, Walter Bloomberg, a mysterious X account that typically reposts breaking-news headlines, tweets that a 90-day tariff pause is coming, triggering an instant US$4 trillion recovery… [7] …which evaporates within hours after the White House says Walter is wrong-o. [8] China strikes back again: 34% retaliatory tariffs? MAKE IT 84%! Now even Joe Rogan and Dave Portnoy are turning on Trump. Elon Musk calls Trump’s trade advisor a “moron.” [9] J.P. Morgan megabanker Jamie Dimon goes on Fox Business on the morning of April 9 and predicts a recession… [10] …and this, apparently, is what finally persuades Trump to press the ABORT button. (Rising bond yields might have also been a factor.) Hours later, the president pauses most tariff increases beyond the levies already in place for 90 days with the notable exception of China, whose tariff gets hiked, again, to 125%. The NASDAQ responds with its biggest rally since 2008. Ackman praises Trump’s “brilliantly executed” plan as “Textbook, Art of the Deal.” [11] On April 10, stocks sink again as reality sets in: the U.S. and China seem headed for a trade war, tariffs are coming eventually, and all the haziness seems certain to freeze business investment. [12] On Saturday, April 12, Trump carves out tariff exceptions that cover pretty much everything the U.S. buys from China, e.g., iPhones, electronics, toys, plastic stuff. Then on Sunday, the U.S. Commerce Secretary said these tariff exceptions are temporary, so who knows what’s going on. PART II: SO ARE WE AT (TRADE) WAR NOW? As Bloomberg’s Joe Weisenthal wrote, Trump’s 90-day tariff pause is a “pullback from the brink” — but not the end of the war. So let’s recap where the tariffs stand right now (before Trump changes his mind again): 🇨🇦 Canada: Trump has imposed a 25% surtax on steel, aluminum, and autos, and on all non-CUSMA goods (which includes two-thirds of Canadian imports to the U.S.). There’s also a 10% surtax on energy and potash. (The key syllable there, by the way, is “sur”: those tariffs stack on top of various preexisting taxes.) 🇨🇳 China: Including previous hikes, Trump’s tariffs on China now stand at 145% — so high they could push the two countries to the brink of decoupling. China, in return, has hiked its reciprocal tariffs to 125%. The U.S. and China combined represent 43% of the global economy. A recession for either would pull in all of us. 🌎 The world: There’s a global baseline 10% tariff — a 10x hike from before Trump took office, making the U.S. the most heavily tariffed industrialized country. U.S. consumers will now be paying an average effective tariff rate of 25%, the highest since 1909. Additional reciprocal tariffs are paused for now, and Trump has signalled an openness to negotiation. (The EU has put its reciprocal tariffs on hold too.) But Trump could unpause at any moment, and even if he doesn’t, the 90-day tariff delay will end in a blink. PART III: WHAT’S THE DAMAGE FROM ALL THIS? No banks have collapsed and no blue-chip companies have folded — yet. The big concern is that the market crash and lingering tariff uncertainty have already set in motion a chain reaction that could hurt corporations and fuel a global recession. That’s partly because business investments and hiring decisions in Canada and elsewhere have ground to a halt, as companies await clarity on tariffs. Adding to the unease, investors are fleeing the bond market, driving up yields. And rising yields hurt everyday people by raising interest rates — which in turn slow down the economy. Another drag on growth is that many individuals will likely put off making big decisions (retirement) and big purchases (a house) that seemed safe a month ago. Hence, even if Trump keeps making concessions, we’re “beyond the swift rebound story,” says macro forecaster Neil Dutta, who’s been right a lot these past few months. And if we get a recession, as many economists expect, studies show that less-affluent households usually get hit the hardest, because they’re often forced to sell their assets to make ends meet. PART IV: IS THERE A SMART WAY TO NAVIGATE A BEARISH MARKET? OK, so what should you, dear TLDR reader, do about all this tariff upheaval? Well, the past few weeks have driven home the chestnut that there’s always a scary reason to sell — but that doesn’t necessarily mean you should. It’s not every day that a U.S. president attempts to reorder global trade and sparks a stock sell-off in the process, but periodic retreats do come with investing. Between 1973 and 2024, the TSX had 15 bear markets, or 20% drops. (Globally, there were eight bear markets.) Each of these drops no doubt felt like the end of the world for those who lived through them. And yet each time, stocks, broadly speaking, recovered and kept marching up and up. That’s why seasoned investors say that, as a rule, if your portfolio is diversified, you’re likely best off if you stick to your investing plan in good times or bad and keep putting money into markets at a regular clip. That said, if you’re unsure whether your investing plan matches your risk appetite, it might be a good time to speak with a financial advisor, because the stock-market volatility probably ain’t over. If you’re close to retirement or might need your money soon, you’d be wise to ensure your portfolio isn’t too risky. On the other hand, if you’re youngish, you likely don’t want to be too conservative and sit on the sidelines and thereby risk missing out on the market recovery. An advisor can talk you through such considerations. One step you can take on your own is to make sure you’ve got a few months of expenses set aside in your emergency fund. Then, hopefully, you can sleep easy, bear market or not. —Devin Gordon and Sarah Rieger FROM OUR SPONSOR THE FOMO INDEX by Stacey Woods IMPORTANT 🇨🇦 Canadian companies with American names, e.g., Boston Pizza, say they’re nervous about customer backlash. Canadian Tire changing name to “Really, Really Canadian Tire.” Source ⚖️ Weight Watchers preparing to file for bankruptcy, unless someone invents a shot that makes people want to struggle to achieve things again. Source 🍴 Trump letting Nvidia sell chips to China after CEO attends $1M-a-plate Mar-a-Lago dinner. He’s hoping next he can just write Trump a cheque. Source 🏖️ Are you down to puck? MTV is casting for the Canadian version of Jersey Shore. Source CRASH & BURN TO THE MOON 🌭 U.S. restaurants replacing seafood towers with hot dog towers. Red Lobster eyes new promo: Endless Vienna Sausage. Source 🏭 Some Chinese companies are encouraging employees to work less. One day, they might even drop their hours down to full time. Source 🎢 New Universal Studios park opening near London. Finally a Wizarding World of Harry Potter to give the place some old English charm. Source 🚿 Trump repeals water-pressure regulations for shower heads, but no shower is strong enough to wash all this away. Source WHO CARES OTHER VERY GOOD READS 🗑️ Is Canada Cashing in on the Philippines’ Pollution? Why a Canadian company is paying plastic pickers via the blockchain. | The Walrus 🧑‍💻 Running the numbers* A math prodigy allegedly stole US$65 million in crypto. Now he's on the lam. | The Globe and Mail 🐙 The Canadian Octopus: Brookfield A multipart series looking into one of Canada’s corporate giants. | The Hatchet *Article is paywalled, which, yeah, is kind of annoying. But we think good journalism is worth paying for. THE WISDOM OF SOCIAL New routine with our morning coffee: THOUGHTS ON TODAY’S ISSUE? Love it Good So so This week’s newsletter contributors: Ben Mathis-Lilley (writer), Devin Gordon (writer), Stacey Woods (writer), Sarah Rieger (news writer), (Ambrose Martos (fact checker), Ciara Rickard (copy editor), Clare Douglas (copy editor), Sara Black McCulloch (fact checker), Mohini Tailor (lifecycle marketing manager), Eva Grace Clement Cruz (editorial producer), Matthew Karasz (markets editor) Jared Sullivan (senior editor), Peter Martin (senior editor), and Devin Friedman (editor-in-chief). Wealthsimple Media Inc. 80 Spadina Ave Suite 400 Toronto, ON, M5V 2J4 VIEW IN BROWSER PRIVACY POLICY UNSUBSCRIBE TLDR is offered by Wealthsimple Media Inc. and is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are those of the individual author and/or of Wealthsimple Media Inc., not of Wealthsimple Financial Corp or any of its other subsidiaries or affiliates. 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