Plus: Canadians are ditching their travel plans March 31, 2025 Sign Up | View online IN THIS ISSUE 8 min read 💬 Group chat gossip 🛬 Travel trouble 🌎 Foreign-policy problems You know that face you make when you suddenly realize you texted the wrong person? Well, several U.S. government officials no doubt made it last week after their Signal convo was made public. | HBO THE WEEK IN MARKETS How ugly is this going to get? With tariff chaos and market retreats dominating headlines, finance nerds spent much of last week discussing the historical bright line between “don’t worry; this is fine” and “OK, now it’s time to freak out.” And that line is: a recession. As this chart making the rounds on fintwit shows, after 10% downturns (like we’ve seen in U.S. markets recently), stocks have historically recovered fast — if the economy avoided a recession. But when it didn’t? Well, things have tended to get ugly. The trouble is, there’s no way to know which path we’re on now. What’s clear is that tariff panic continues to wreak havoc on the markets: stocks rallied early last week, fueled by signals that Trump might back down (again) from some of his most extreme threats, before plunging when the president changed his mind (again) and announced an April 2 start for myriad tariffs. Traders are getting so dizzy they’re starting to openly wonder if Trump wants a recession in order to reset the global economy — or if he’ll blink before we get there. THE WEEK IN ONE CHART Canadians aren’t flying south. And maybe no wonder, amid travel warnings and anger over the declining Canada–U.S. relationship. WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK IMPORTANT Signal is turning Trump’s national security 😳🫣💩 into 💰💰💰. The encrypted messaging app was already enjoying a strong 2025, with downloads up 25% over Q1 of last year. Then, top U.S. national security officials used it to commit an all-time oopsie, and the open-source app — run by the nonprofit Signal Foundation, which is funded entirely by donations — shot up to as high as sixth among social platforms in the Apple Store, only a smidge behind Meta-owned chat behemoth WhatsApp. Signal’s 70 million users are still a mere fraction of WhatsApp’s 2-plus billion, but Signalgate was the kind of global meme generator that can alter the fortunes of a frisky indie app. Canada’s next prime minister (whoever it is) vows to cut your taxes. All major party candidates kicked off their campaigns last week by pledging tax relief. We’ll provide a full breakdown in a future pre-election issue. But, as far as the two top-polling parties go, the Conservatives have pledged to cut taxes by 2.25% for the lowest earners, defer any tax on capital-gains proceeds between July 2025 and December 2026 (provided the proceeds are reinvested in Canada), and raise the TFSA limit for folks who invest in Canada. The Liberals, meanwhile, say they’ll cut taxes by 1% for the lowest earners and have spiked their plan to increase capital-gains taxes. Here’s a more detailed overview by the Financial Post of who these proposed tax cuts stand to benefit most. INTERESTING What if The Office were an anime? Anime auteur Hayao Miyazaki (Spirited Away, My Neighbor Totoro) has called AI-generated art an “insult to life itself,” so let’s hope he’s blissfully unaware of the recent trend of people using ChatGPT’s latest image-generation tool to create portraits inspired by his studio’s signature hand-drawn style. AI models are touted for their potential to accelerate scientific discoveries and health care breakthroughs, but right now people seem to be using them mostly for producing plagiarized art and Miyazaki-like portraits of Michael Scott and Dwight Schrute. According to Sam Altman himself, in fact, OpenAI’s image generator is so popular it’s “melting” its CPUs. —Sarah Rieger FROM OUR SPONSOR THE FOMO INDEX by Stacey Woods IMPORTANT 🧬 23andMe files for bankruptcy. Delete your data now so no one finds out you’re a Neanderthal who hates cilantro. Source 🚗 Canada freezes Tesla rebates and bans the company from future rebate programs. Will, however, key your car for you free of charge. Source 💳 DoorDash to offer a “pay later” option, ensuring that future generations will be saddled with crippling grain-bowl debt. Source 🧪 Science figures out how to make amber in 24 hours instead of millions of years. Hippies, dead scorpions rejoice. Source CRASH & BURN TO THE MOON 🛒 Loblaw putting body cams in more stores. Footage will come in handy for documentary about people paying $37 for chicken. Source 🌴 Florida might use child labour to fill immigrant jobs. Who better to hose away all that spring break White Claw vomit? Source 🍻 Saskatchewan walks back American beer ban. It’s unclear how big a role drinking the last Molson played in the decision. Source 🧳 Canada updates travel guidelines for the U.S., including new details about where not to let the door hit you on your way out. Source WHO CARES THE BIG IMPORTANT STORY GEOPOLITICS The World Is Changing, Fast. What’s Canada’s Place in It? Big shifts are happening in the world, and they’re making a lot of people anxious about their money and future. Much of the unease owes to the Trump administration’s bare-knuckled approach to foreign policy and trade. But his recent moves are actually part of a larger story that predates his tenure about how the U.S. is shifting its priorities — with major economic and political consequences for Canada and beyond. We tapped Graeme Thompson, a senior analyst (and a Canadian!) at the Eurasia Group, a global risk and political consulting firm, to share his views on the fast-changing world and Canada’s place in it. First, the basics: what’s the big geopolitical story right now? We’re in the middle of a significant shift in the global balance of economic — and, therefore, military and strategic — power. As everyone knows, the U.S. emerged from the Second World War as the leader of the free world. At the same time, it transformed from a protectionist country to a free-trade leader. In practice, this meant that it used its military might to protect global sea lanes, not just for its own benefit but for the world’s. So, for example, after WWII, the U.S. could have used its warships to blockade ports and prevent other countries from competing against U.S. firms. But instead, it allowed Canada and other countries to sail the seas safely. Totally. That’s why scholars describe the U.S. as a “benign hegemony.” The vast majority of global trade flows via the ocean, and this post-WWII free-trade system benefited Canada and other U.S. allies. The West got rich, as did Japan and Korea and many other countries, while the U.S. shouldered much of the defence burden. OK, so what’s changing? Well, the U.S. was the world’s only superpower for decades, but now other countries are catching up. The U.S. views China, in particular, as a major threat and wants to reallocate resources to the Pacific to contain it. The trouble is that the U.S. doesn’t have the resources to counter China effectively while also protecting shipping routes and much of Europe. That’s the big reason why the Trump administration wants European countries to contribute more to their own defence; it wants to focus on China. [This pivot began during the Obama administration but has accelerated in recent years.] Where does this leave Canada? Canada is in a challenging position since, like Europe, it has historically relied on the U.S. for defence. After the Cold War, Canada assumed that the odds of war had essentially dropped to zero, so it slashed military spending. Which made sense, right? The U.S. was our best buddy. Our troops had stormed the beaches of Normandy together. We could rely on them. That’s basically right. The problem now is that, with the U.S. wanting to spend less to defend its allies, Canada lacks the military strength to counter Russia’s and China’s expansions in the Arctic. Another hitch is that Canada put all its eggs in the basket of economic integration with the U.S. by joining American-led free-trade agreements. We got cheaper goods as a result, but domestic manufacturing declined. And many Canadian industries were bought out or relocated. Altogether this has made Canada vulnerable to tariffs because we export a lot of raw materials and import a lot of finished products we no longer make domestically. So what should Canada do now? In my view, Canada should double down on its oldest, strongest allies: the U.K., Australia, and New Zealand. We share democratic values and much history. Together we could unite and push for easier trade and worker mobility between our countries. Though Canada lacks hard power, we have serious strengths in this moment of upheaval. We’re rich in smart, innovative people, and we’re loaded with natural resources. We’ve got a great system of government, a non-corrupt civil service, and the rule of law. With all this going for us, there’s little reason Canada should not be the best country on earth. Interview by Jared Sullivan. This conversation was edited for clarity and concision. Correction: Last week in this space, we included a chart showing how stocks have outperformed other assets, but the Y axis was a bit screwy. Sorry about that! Here’s a corrected version. POLL What’s your top money issue heading into the April 28 federal election? The trade war Housing costs General affordability (food, gas, wages) Productivity and economic growth Social programs (health care, child care, education) Defence spending OTHER VERY GOOD READS 🎰 The Biggest Loser The high-stakes gambler famous for losing money. | Slate* 🥵 The Big Business of Menopause A-list conventions, retreats, and lots of profit. | Chatelaine 🏠 “People are feeling absolutely stuck” Mike Moffatt on a plan to eliminate GST on new homes. | The Hub *Article is paywalled, which, yeah, is kind of annoying. But we think good journalism is worth paying for. THE WISDOM OF SOCIAL America has really stepped in it if suddenly Quebec is proclaiming “buy Canadian.” THOUGHTS ON TODAY’S ISSUE? Love it Good So so This week’s newsletter contributors: Ben Mathis-Lilley (writer), Devin Gordon (writer), Stacey Woods (writer), Sarah Rieger (news writer), Dan Xin Huang (news editor), (Ambrose Martos (fact checker), Ciara Rickard (copy editor), Clare Douglas (copy editor), Sara Black McCulloch (fact checker), Mohini Tailor (lifecycle marketing manager), Eva Grace Clement Cruz (editorial producer), Matthew Karasz (markets editor), Jared Sullivan (senior editor), Peter Martin (senior editor), and Devin Friedman (editor-in-chief). Wealthsimple Media Inc. 80 Spadina Ave Suite 400 Toronto, ON, M5V 2J4 VIEW IN BROWSER PRIVACY POLICY UNSUBSCRIBE A friendly reminder: Wealthsimple and the Canada Revenue Agency will never ask for personal or financial information via email, including your SIN, account password, or banking details. 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