Plus: how to actually diversify your money. December 11, 2023 Sign Up | View Online IN THIS ISSUE 8 min read 💰 Housing (for investors) 📦 Happy Holidays (for execs) 📈 Berkshire (but Toronto) OK, so real-estate investors aren’t exactly like Scrooge McDuck, but they’ve no doubt been using their gold coins to scoop up new Toronto condos, much to the chagrin of Bob Cratchit everymen. | Disney THE WEEK IN MARKETS Soft-Landing Euphoria Maybe you know what it means already, but let’s define the term “soft landing”: it’s when rate hikes bring high inflation back to earth without triggering a full-on recession. It’s not an easy recipe — this soufflé of monetary policy, if you will — and central banks often botch it. Why mention this now? Because last week, we got more signs that a soft landing may work out this time. U.S. jobs numbers showed that inflation pressures are easing even though the economy remains strong, while the Bank of Canada held its benchmark rate at 5%, signalling it’s confident about inflation, too. Given all this news, investors generally expect the BoC and the U.S. Fed to cut rates by about 1% next year, according to Bloomberg data. This possibility has kept the stock rally chugging along: the TSX is up 4.8% YTD, while the S&P 500 is north 20% YTD. The rally could go sideways if fresh data dims investors’ expectations, but right now the numbers are telling us to get ready for a soufflé. WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK IMPORTANT Guess who’s buying Ontario’s new condos… Faced with a painful housing crunch, Ontario scrapped rent control on new builds in 2018 to incentivize construction. And it helped! Housing starts are at a 30-year high. The hitch: regular folks haven’t bought most of the properties in Toronto. Instead, according to a new analysis by The Toronto Star, investors have scooped up 57% of the condos built over the past six years and now own 80% of pre-construction condos. Homes being used as investments (as opposed to primary residences) tends to drive up prices by limiting supply, so these investors probably aren’t helping the city’s affordability issue. Give yourself the gift of … tax savings! Are you planning on buying a place in the next, say, 15 years (provided investors don’t own everything by then)? If so, heads up: you’ve got until Dec. 31 to open a First Home Savings Account, or FHSA, this year. Why bother? Well, the tax savings can be worth it (as we’ve covered before) and simply opening a FHSA this year will give you up to $8,000 in extra contribution room to carry forward (which you’ll probably want), even if you don’t have the cash lying around to fund your FHSA just yet. The CBC’s CEO steps in it. The broadcaster announced it’ll cut 10% of its workforce, or 800 positions, as a result of declining ad revenue and streaming competition. So surely it won’t be doling out $16 million in C-suite bonuses like it did last year, right? Well, when asked about that, CEO Catherine Tait just stared blankly into the camera, as if she’d been asked to sum up the plot of Heartland (something about horses?). Anyway, the cuts could jeopardize the CBC’s ability to meet its mandate to inform and entertain the masses. Fingers crossed those Google bucks go far. INTERESTING Spotify pink-slips its Pulitzer winner. Streamers may be hurting the CBC, but they’re in a tough spot themselves, thanks to profitability pressure. Last week, audio giant Spotify, which has never made an annual profit, laid off 17% of its staff, or about 1,500 employees. The CEO blamed the move on needing to “rightsize” after over-hiring during the zero-rate frothiness of ’20–’21. (Spotify’s shares jumped 6% on the news, although they’re still down about 40% from their 2021 peak.) Joe Rogan hung on to his job; Spotify instead scrapped “Stolen,” the Pulitzer-winning podcast hosted by former CBC journalist Connie Walker, along with the beloved “Heavyweight,” by former Montrealer Jonathan Goldstein. Meet the Toronto company that’s a bit like Berkshire. Last week, The Economist published an interesting (and paywalled, sorry) article about Constellation Software, a Toronto company that’s delivered 35% compounded annual growth since going public in 2006. How? By snapping up steady-growing, unsexy tech firms, like ones that make car-dealership software, and then simply leaving them alone. That’s very Berkshire Hathaway-esque. Now let’s see if Constellation can consistently outperform the market for 50-plus years, not just 17, like the House of Buffett. TLDR PODCAST Last week, we talked about what The Cheesecake Factory can teach us about a mall’s financial health, and Charlie Munger’s most sensible investing tip. On our next episode, out Tuesday, we get into Canada’s monopoly problem — and why the government might, and perhaps it’s a strong might, actually do something about it. Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Google Podcasts, etc. —Sarah Rieger FROM OUR SPONSORS THE FOMO INDEX by Stacey Woods IMPORTANT ➗ Study finds only 12% of Canadian students are considered “high math achievers.” The other 82% know math’s not that important. Source 🤳 Ex-U.S. congressman George Santos joins Cameo, where no one can ever prove he doesn’t honestly wish you a happy birthday. Source 🤖 Google launches new AI “Gemini,” which can do things like analyze math homework. It will be very busy here. Source 💋 Future KISS concerts will be performed by 3D avatars, which comes as news to everyone who thought they already were. Source CRASH & BURN TO THE MOON 🔎 Poll finds nearly 80% of Canadians believe in conspiracies. The other 20% aren’t about to believe what some poll says. Source 🥤 Three men charged with stealing $135K in Dr. Pepper syrup. No one told them that’s not how you make meth. Source 🐊 The new McDonald’s Crocs are out, but they’re only for adults because kids might still have a chance at life. Source 🎟️ Canadians can now buy concert tickets directly from TikTok. Just give them your bank PIN and they’ll do the rest. Source WHO CARES WHAT’S UP THIS WEEK Fresh U.S. inflation data (Tuesday). Apologies if it seems like all we talk about is inflation, but it’s a big deal! Forecasters widely expect inflation to keep trending downward, so it’ll definitely be an unwelcome surprise if November’s data doesn’t show a slowdown from October’s 3.2% rate. DON'T BE A TLDR HOG 🐷 Like TLDR? The first five million people to click this link can share it with a friend for free. (You can share it with enemies too but only if you’re ready for them to love you.) THE BIG IMPORTANT STORY SIMPLE INVESTING How Do I Diversify, Anyway? If you read enough financial journalism, you’re bound to come across advice to diversify the asset classes in your portfolio. Which is a jargony way of saying: don’t invest in all the same stuff, unless you like losing money. Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater, the world’s largest hedge fund, has gone as far as to call diversification the Holy Grail of investing for delivering high and consistent returns. We’re not saying everyone agrees (Charlie Munger famously scoffed at the strategy), but conventional investing wisdom holds that diversification will steadily grow your portfolio while also helping it ride out market turmoil. So, how do you build a diversified portfolio? It’s a good time to ask that question, because, as we said up top, the 2023 FHSA contribution deadline is coming up, along with that for TFSAs and other tax-advantaged accounts. And you’ll have to make investment decisions if you contribute. Let’s get to it: First: what, exactly, is diversification? It’s a strategy for growing your wealth in an inherently risky world by investing in different types, or classes, of assets. The thinking goes: since you can’t know for sure which investment will do better or worse over time, the surest way to build wealth is to invest in myriad assets that (1) are likely to increase in value and (2) will perform well in different economic environments. Stick with us; it’s not that complicated. [1] Invest in stuff that grows. If you kept all your money in the bank, it would be super safe, but inflation would slowly eat away at its value. Which is why people invest in assets that appreciate, or gain value — like stocks, bonds, and real estate. There are logical reasons why these assets appreciate, but it mostly comes down to being paid for taking on risk: investors buy assets in exchange for a future payment, knowing there’s a chance they might lose money. And since investing carries risk, it’s smart to… [2] Buy different assets, in different places. A big way to both mitigate risk and avoid missing out on good returns is to bet on assets that are geographically diversified. For instance, as the table below shows, U.S., Japanese, and Canadian stocks each dominated different decades over the past 50-odd years, but a portfolio tracking all the world’s major stock markets (“Equal Weight”) performed better than any one market — a big feather in diversification’s cap. To maximize your odds of success — and that’s what diversification is all about — you probably shouldn’t invest only in stocks, either, because different asset classes perform well at different times based on economic conditions. Bonds, for one, tend to perform well when economic growth suffers and stocks fall. Moreover, as this chart shows, some years cash or government bonds have performed the best. [3] Consider your goals and risk tolerance. Here’s the hard/fun part: how much of each asset class — stocks, bonds, gold, etc. — should you own? Pros call this “asset allocation.” And it’s hard to be terribly prescriptive about it, because your strategy should hinge on your investment horizon, goals, and risk appetite. You might want to hold more stocks when you’re young, say, and more bonds when you’re older. That said, a few well-regarded investors have offered up asset-allocation targets. The late David Swensen, who managed Yale’s endowment to great success, suggested a portfolio composed of 30% domestic (that is, U.S.) stocks, 15% foreign developed-economy stocks (e.g., Japan), 20% REITs, 15% Treasury bonds, 15% TIPS, and 5% emerging-market stocks (Brazil, India, etc.). Disciples of Vanguard founder John C. Bogle popularized an even simpler structure: the three-fund portfolio, composed of 34% domestic (U.S.) stocks, 33% international stocks, and 33% domestic bonds. Then, of course, there’s the classic 60/40 portfolio, composed mostly of stocks that are offset by (ostensibly) lower-risk bonds. If you’re looking for more guidance, here are some general allocation models for Canadian investors based on risk tolerance. There’s no right answer — just wrong ones if a downturn catches you unprepared. —Ben Mathis-Lilley OTHER VERY GOOD READS 🫰 The Year in Being Rich Why we were all obsessed with wealth this year | Hazlitt 📵 The Worst Tech of 2023 An anti-gift guide | Los Angeles Times 🤑 How to Blow Your Holiday Bonus If you don’t invest it, maybe give it away? | Wealthsimple Magazine THE WISDOM OF TWITTER X Our one redeemable quality is the good memeage we bring to the team Slack channel. THOUGHTS ON TODAY’S ISSUE? Love it Good So so This week’s newsletter contributors: Ben Mathis-Lilley (writer), Devin Gordon (writer), Stacey Woods (writer), Sarah Rieger (news writer), Ambrose Martos (fact checker), Ciara Rickard (copy editor), Nikki Holmes (copy editor), Sara Black McCulloch (fact checker), Mohini Tailor (senior lifecycle specialist), Matthew Karasz (markets editor) Jared Sullivan (senior editor), Peter Martin (senior editor), Kat Angus (managing editor), and Devin Friedman (editor-in-chief). Disclosures: Contributors to this newsletter own shares in Google. Wealthsimple Media Inc. 80 Spadina Ave Suite 400 Toronto, ON, M5V 2J4 Replies to this email address are not monitored. Have questions? Visit our Help Centre or submit a request to our Client Support team. VIEW IN BROWSER PRIVACY POLICY UNSUBSCRIBE From November 1 to December 15, 2023, Wealthsimple clients who activate this offer by submitting the linked form and deposit or transfer the qualified amount into their Wealthsimple self-directed investing, managed investing, crypto, save, or cash account will receive the following: $100,000-$199,999: iPhone 15 128GB; $200,000+: iPhone 15 Pro 128GB. Residents of Canada and age of majority + only. Limit 1 reward per qualified client. Full terms and conditions here. Apple, the Apple logo, and iPhone are trademarks of Apple Inc., registered in the U.S. and other countries and regions. TLDR is offered by Wealthsimple Media Inc. and is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are those of the individual author and/or of Wealthsimple Media Inc., not of Wealthsimple Financial Corp or any of its other subsidiaries or affiliates. The content in TLDR is not investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell assets or securities, nor any other kind of professional advice. TLDR is not a research report and should not serve as the basis for making investment decisions. Wealthsimple Media Inc. does not endorse any third-party views referenced in this content. When you invest, your money is at risk and it is possible that you may lose some or all of your investment. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Historical returns, hypothetical returns, expected returns and images included in this content are for illustrative purposes only. Always research before investing. © 2023 Wealthsimple Media Inc.