Plus: why weed took a hit. October 23, 2023 Sign Up | View Online IN THIS ISSUE 7 min read 🌿 Cannabis 🏦 Central banks 🛻 Cybertrucks Venture capitalist Marc Andreessen argued that fears of a Terminator scenario are overblown — never mind his investments into some pretty Terminator-adjacent technology. Read more below. | Orion THE WEEK IN MARKETS Stocks Play Chicken Remember how central banks raised rates by 5% or more over 20 months, and since then everyone’s been wondering when the high-interest chickens will come home to roost? Well, last week markets started to feel pretty chicken-y. The TSX and S&P fell and are now both -7% since July. What’s going on? Well, investors have started betting that interest rates will stay higher for longer than they expected, and right now mortgage rates are 7% in Canada and 8% in the U.S. That has investors worried because high borrowing costs could hurt consumer spending (everyone’s mortgage is going up!) and make it harder for companies to raise money. So far, the damage has been small: the TSX is only down about 2% YTD, while the S&P 500 is still up 11%. The question is whether company profits will take a hit if consumers do in fact start spending less. Those chickens are MIA for now, but the coming months will tell us more. WHAT HAPPENED LAST WEEK IMPORTANT Gasp! Central-bank drama. Usually, the U.S. Federal Reserve isn’t terribly exciting, but over the past 20 months it’s been an interest-rate soap opera. Fed chair Jerome Powell is the undoubted star of As the Fed Turns, but last week some of his top lieutenants stole the spotlight, saying that inflation was not fully defeated but a rate-hike pause was in order, given inflation’s “undeniable” slowdown. Still, as we mentioned up top, investors were pretty jittery about rates, so on Thursday, Powell reclaimed all the attention and said the U.S. economy’s super-strength “could warrant” further rate hikes, but, crucially, he signalled that the Fed was being careful not to overtighten, or excessively slow down, the economy. Big Grocery’s word might not be bond. Earlier this month, the federal industry minister announced that major grocers — Loblaw, Metro, Walmart, Costco, and Empire (which make up 70% of the market) — promised to discount food prices. But so far they just, uh, haven’t? The minister now says he wishes the grocers would be “more forthcoming” about their plans, because it turns out pinky swears aren’t binding. The news site The Hoser built a GTA grocery-price tracker if you want to keep tabs on food costs yourself. INTERESTING Ethics are for losers, says billionaire venture capitalist. In an essay titled “Techno-Optimist Manifesto,” VC Marc Andreessen whipped up Silicon Valley by calling out several “enemies” of progress — a menacing list that includes “sustainability,” “tech ethics,” and “social responsibility.” Reaction was divided. Shopify’s Tobias Lutke, among others, nodded along to the notion that technology can solve the world’s biggest problems; after all, tech’s track record includes vaccines, electric lighting, and air conditioning. But futurist thinker Dave Karpf called Andreessen’s take “comically oversimplified,” since tech has also perhaps exacerbated things like income inequality and environmental degradation — and failed to address the fact that MrBeast is somehow famous. Bad news for Elon Mu CYBERTRUCK! On Wednesday, the world’s most famous secret procreator tried to distract from Tesla’s 44% drop in quarterly profits — the result of vehicle price cuts and temporary factory shutdowns — by announcing that the EV maker’s long-delayed CYBERTRUCK will arrive in leafy cul-de-sacs this fall. At any rate, Musk said lower profits were actually good news, because price cuts protect Tesla’s sales from an incursion by China’s heavily subsidized EVs. Indeed, Tesla remains on track to deliver 1.8 million vehicles by the year’s end, which would be a 50% increase year-over-year, and 125,000 of these vehicles will be CYBERTRUCKS. Is this the Fall of the House of Gusher? Last week, Arthur Irving, the 93-year-old chairman of Irving Oil, one of Canada’s largest family-owned conglomerates, and his daughter Sarah Irving, the executive VP, were both quietly removed from the leadership team listed on the company’s website, which prompted speculation about the company’s future. Irving Oil owns every step of the oil-and-gas production chain in New Brunswick, so any change in the company could affect the province. But, since the Irvings are highly secretive, we probably won’t learn more about the latest drama unless there’s another document leak. —Sarah Rieger FROM OUR SPONSOR Data collected as of October 20, 2023. Average includes all posted-rates of chequing accounts from Canadian financial institutions as listed under Schedule I under the Bank Act. Excludes limited-time and promotional offers and products that do not offer cheques. THE FOMO INDEX by Stacey Woods IMPORTANT 💅 Xi Jinping welcomes “dear friend” Vladimir Putin to China. They’re going to do face masks and braid each other’s hair. Source 👔 LinkedIn lays off nearly 700 employees, who will now have to upgrade to LinkedIn Premium to find a new job. Source 📸 Diner’s rights are human rights: influencers are being banned from cafés, restaurants, and even entire towns. Source 🎻 Donors give Toronto Symphony record $14.7 million donation but miss funny opportunity to tell them to “take some lessons.” Source CRASH & BURN TO THE MOON 🎧 “DJ D-Sol,” AKA David Solomon, will stop DJing and stick to his day job, being CEO of Goldman Sachs. Source 🐻 Does a bear poop in your car? Black bear freed from B.C. vehicle leaves “small, smelly surprise.” Source 🏪 Squid Game Calamari Poppers, anyone? Netflix to open “Netflix House” locations that will offer branded retail, dining, and live entertainment. Source 🌶️ New pepper, Pepper X, named hottest in the world after laying off staff, ditching old name, Pepper Twitter. Source WHO CARES WHAT’S UP THIS WEEK A bunch of big-tech earnings (Monday – Thursday). Microsoft, Meta, Amazon, Google, and Nvidia are all expected to report hefty profits. The Bank of Canada weighs another rate hike (Wednesday). In the latest episode of The BoC and the Beautiful, the Canadian counterpart to As the Fed Turns (see above), Tiff Macklem and Co. are expected to hold rates steady. Fingers crossed. DON'T BE A TLDR HOG 🐷 Like TLDR? The first five million people to click this link can share it with a friend for free. (You can share it with enemies too but only if you’re ready for them to love you.) THE BIG IMPORTANT STORY BUSINESS The Weed Industry Went Bust. What the Heck Happened? Last week marked five years since Canada became the second country in the world, after the notorious stoner’s haven of Uruguay, to legalize recreational cannabis. The purpose wasn’t just to goose the economy — putting fewer people in jail for drugs was part of the decision — but investors’ expectations were no doubt high. The prices of weed stocks more than doubled in the lead-up to legalization, and industry observers projected nearly $10 billion in annual sales by 2025. But five years later, those hopes — and we’re obligated to make this joke once, sorry — have mostly gone up in smoke. Canadian cannabis ETFs, like $HMMJ, have lost 90% or more of their value since their 2018 peaks. Producers have laid off employees, and the total size of the market hovers around $4.5 billion. TLDR’s Ben Mathis-Lilley spoke to Allan Gregory, an industry expert and a professor of economics at Queen’s University who, although he was too polite to mention it, basically saw all this coming. Why have cannabis companies failed to live up to expectations? When companies were forming and in some cases going public, they tended to say they had low costs — the average cost for producing a gram would be 50 cents or a dollar, say. Meanwhile, they were selling cannabis for $14 to $22 a gram. But it didn’t work out that way, partly because the provincial governments took a large share of the profits. [Provincial authorities made more than $1.5 billion on cannabis sales and taxes in 2021–2022; Ontario’s provincial pot distributor had a 31% wholesale markup until recently.] Can you explain that more? The provinces act as a middleman between private-sector growers and private-sector storefront retailers, right? That’s right. Everything that goes from a farm to a retail outlet must first pass through a provincial government, which acts as a wholesaler or distributor. Saskatchewan is an exception, since it allows private wholesalers, but it’s not a very big market. Anyway, under this framework, the provinces can buy cannabis cheap and then sell it high, either to independent retailers or at their own government-run stores. But the government is only part of the issue, right? Yeah. Perhaps the biggest issue for the industry is that the demand for cannabis has been steady but not as large as expected, and there’s an oversupply of product. [In December of last year, licensed cultivators, stores, and wholesalers had more than 3 million pounds of unsold dried cannabis in their inventories.] This oversaturation has led to a litany of bankruptcies among private producers. It doesn’t help growers that customers seem to view brands as interchangeable, whereas with craft beer, say, there’s demand for boutique local stuff. Is there any reason for optimism in the cannabis industry? Many places in the United States have legalized recreational cannabis recently, and that has renewed interest in Canadian companies. There are still Canadian firms listed on the New York Stock Exchange, hoping to hit gold [and their shares are arguably cheap now for investors who think they will]. The U.S. doesn’t have a history of government agencies buying or selling controlled substances, like cannabis, so if legalization spreads, Canadian producers may be able to make better profits by going right to U.S. customers, without having to deal with government wholesalers. This interview was edited for length and clarity. OTHER VERY GOOD READS 💰 The Great Cash-For-Carbon Hustle* Turns out, offsetting is pretty scammy. | The New Yorker 🌞 How a Summer House Triggered an Existential Crisis on PEI An Ontario couple sparks controversy in the island community. | The Walrus 🧑‍💻 Am I “Paying My Dues” or “Getting Taken Advantage of”? How (and when) to stand up for yourself in the office. | Wealthsimple Magazine *Article is paywalled, which, yeah, is kind of annoying. But we think good journalism is worth paying for. THE WISDOM OF TWITTER “CYBERTRUCK! CYBERTRUCK! CYBERTRUCK!” — Elon Musk right now, probably THOUGHTS ON TODAY’S ISSUE? Love it Good So so This week’s newsletter contributors: Ben Mathis-Lilley (writer), Devin Gordon (writer), Stacey Woods (writer), Sarah Rieger (news writer), Ambrose Martos (fact checker), Ciara Rickard (copy editor), Nikki Holmes (copy editor), Sara Black McCulloch (fact checker), Tyler Hamilton (LifeCycle manager), Jared Sullivan (senior editor), Peter Martin (senior editor), Kat Angus (managing editor), and Devin Friedman (editor-in-chief). Correction: Last week, we erroneously suggested that Suncor is Canada’s largest oil producer, when that distinction in fact belongs to CNRL. We regret the error. Wealthsimple Media Inc. 80 Spadina Ave Suite 400 Toronto, ON, M5V 2J4 Replies to this email address are not monitored. Have questions? Visit our Help Centre or submit a request to our Client Support team. VIEW IN BROWSER PRIVACY POLICY UNSUBSCRIBE Our Cash product is offered by Wealthsimple Investments Inc. (“WSII”), a member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada, and Wealthsimple Payments Inc., a FINTRAC registered money services business. The funds you add to a Cash account (the “Funds”) are ultimately held securely in trust with a single or multiple members of the Canada Deposit Insurance Corporation (“CDIC”). CDIC protects eligible deposits held at CDIC member institutions in case of a member institution’s failure. Wealthsimple Payments Inc. and WSII are not CDIC member institutions. Under the trust framework, CDIC insures eligible cash balances up to $100,000 per beneficiary, per member institution, provided certain disclosure rules are met. Coverage is free and automatic. Learn more about how CDIC protection works. Funds must be spread across at least 3 CDIC member institutions in order for up to $300,000 in deposits to benefit from applicable CDIC coverage. The advertised interest rate for the Cash Account is derived from interest earned by Wealthsimple on the funds. The rates are annualized rates, calculated daily, and paid monthly. Subject to change. For more information see here. The Funds are settled with any CDIC member(s) one business day following the date that Funds are reflected in the Account. TLDR is offered by Wealthsimple Media Inc. and is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are those of the individual author and/or of Wealthsimple Media Inc., not of Wealthsimple Financial Corp or any of its other subsidiaries or affiliates. The content in TLDR is not investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell assets or securities, nor any other kind of professional advice. TLDR is not a research report and should not serve as the basis for making investment decisions. Wealthsimple Media Inc. does not endorse any third-party views referenced in this content. When you invest, your money is at risk and it is possible that you may lose some or all of your investment. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Historical returns, hypothetical returns, expected returns and images included in this content are for illustrative purposes only. Always research before investing. © 2023 Wealthsimple Media Inc.